Europe will never be the same after 18 September

Exactly one month from now Scotland will hold a referendum to decide whether it wants to be an independent state or continue as a part of the United Kingdom. This is an unprecedented event in the history of Western Europe: the possibility of the birth of a new country without any type of political violence and within a political environment, that of the European Union, which would guarantee the Scots a supranational framework of economic and political cooperation. It's highly likely that London accepted the referendum as a means of stopping the Scottish independence movement in its tracks, as it was confident of its defeat by a wide margin. But perhaps not even David Cameron is aware of the implications that agreeing to the vote has for the whole of the European Union. It's safe to say that, whatever happens on 18 September, political Europe will never be the same after the Scottish precedent.

Two things could happen after 18 September: the "yes" vote could win, and a long and complex process of 3-way negotiation would begin between Edinburgh, London and Brussels -- a process that would give Madrid nightmares; or the "no" vote could win, and the Spanish government would stand out before the entire world for preventing the Catalans from doing what the Scottish did with complete normality. And moreover, in this second scenario even Brussels would have to accept that, in the 21st century, the Scottish example is the way that disagreements over sovereignty should be resolved.

So the Scottish referendum will become a political event of the highest importance that will mark a before and after. It will be difficult for the EU to endorse Madrid's blockade of the Catalan consultation on 9 November, which will be in the eyes of everyone an action alien to Europe's democratic culture. As an article in The Independent said on Saturday, "after all, Spain is a democracy and you cannot ignore the will of the people forever". Rajoy believes that the Scottish referendum is an internal British affair and is trying to ignore its impact on European public opinion-- including that within Spain. But the reality is that on 19 September Europe will be a different place, because there will be a people who have voted freely.